NEFL Week 9 - July 7, 2012

I'm going to work on this more tomorrow, but basically, there are dozens of scenarios in play...I am probably going to spend way too much time putting this together.

For those mentioning it, I do not get paid by the league. I spend over 20 hours per week on this stuff, but I don't get paid for it. I actually have very little affiliation with the league outside of hosting Predators TV shows, and I wasn't even the first choice for that. I'm not going to rattle the cages asking for money--I'm happy to be involved in the sport in some capacity since I can't play (as much as I want to) and my last (volunteer) coaching job was in 2006. I also don't think I can keep this up next year given my three current jobs and how busy my life will be (getting married fall of 2013, carefully planned during a Badgers bye weekend). So, enjoy it for this season. If I worked less than 70-95 hours per week on average, I'd spend more time on it (especially individual statistics, which have been woefully neglected, and I've heard some teams aren't even keeping stats in 2012).

I'll spend some more time on it tomorrow, anyways...without figuring in ties at first. There are over a hundred possibilities to sort through...six teams (Gladiators have to be included in the mix, even though I'm 99% positive they clinched a spot), ten games, three-four playoff spots in the balance...

Jimmie,

The league can not thank you enough for all the time you have spent doing this.

This year is crazy when it comes to playoffs and should be an exciting end to the season!

WOW! The next two weeks are gonna shape the season for a high majority of teams. Jimmie Kaska....you must also do the INSANITY workout! You are INSANELY CRAZY for knowing these scenarios!

You are a good man Mr. Kaska. I hope the league pays you handsomely... if not your more than welcome to come to Superior and I will buy you an Anchor burger and all the PBR you can drink

Chaos scenario (teams at 4-4)

This sucked to put together.

FIVE TEAMS AT 4-4
(Assumes that Crush and Force lose out, Predators lose Week 9 to Giants)

Scenario A: Spartans beat Rough Riders in Week 9 and lose in Week 10; Rough Riders win Week 10

IN: Predators, Spartans (head-to-head records: 2-1)
TIE: Force, Crush (H2H: 1-1) (comes down to points allowed; Force currently lead)
OUT: Rough Riders (H2H: 0-2)

Scenario B: Rough Riders beat Spartans in Week 9 and lose in Week 10; Spartans win Week 10

IN: Predators (H2H: 2-1)
TIE: Force, Crush, Rough Riders (H2H: 1-1) (comes down to points allowed; teams ranked in that order) (two teams from this group will make it)
OUT: Spartans (H2H: 1-2)


FOUR TEAMS AT 4-4

Scenario A: Force lose out; Crush beat Predators Week 10 (clinch a spot); Rough Riders beat Spartans in Week 9 and lose in Week 10; Spartans win Week 10; Predators win Week 9

IN: Predators (1-0 H2H)
TIE: Force, Rough Riders (1-1 H2H) (comes down to points allowed; teams ranked in that order) (one team from this group will make it)
OUT: Spartans (H2H: 1-2)

Scenario B: Force lose out; Crush beat Predators Week 10 (clinch a spot); Spartans beat Rough Riders in Week 9 and lose in Week 10; Rough Riders win Week 10; Predators win Week 9

IN: Predators (1-0 H2H), Spartans (2-1 H2H)
OUT: Force (1-1 H2H), Rough Riders (1-2 H2H)

Scenario C: Crush lose out; Force win at least one game (clinch a spot); Spartans beat Rough Riders in Week 9 and lose in Week 10; Rough Riders win Week 10; Predators lose Week 9

IN: Spartans (2-0 H2H)
TIE: Predators, Crush (1-1 H2H) (comes down to points allowed; teams ranked in that order) (one team from this group will make it)
OUT: Rough Riders (0-2 H2H)

Scenario D: Crush lose out; Force win at least one game (clinch a spot); Rough Riders beat Spartans in Week 9 and lose in Week 10; Spartans win Week 10; Predators lose Week 9

TIE: Spartans, Predators, Crush, Rough Riders (1-1 H2H) (comes down to points allowed; teams ranked in that order) (two teams form this group will make it)

Scenario E: Crush win Week 9 and lose Week 10 (clinch a spot); Force lose out; Predators lose Week 9; Rough Riders beat Spartans in Week 9 and lose in Week 10; Spartans win Week 10

IN: Predators (1-0 H2H)
TIE: Force, Rough Riders (1-1 H2H) (comes down to points allowed; teams ranked in that order) (one team from this group will make it)
OUT: Spartans (1-2 H2H)

Scenario F: Crush win Week 9 and lose Week 10 (clinch a spot); Force lose out; Predators lose Week 9; Spartans beat Rough Riders in Week 9 and lose in Week 10; Rough Riders win Week 10

IN: Predators (1-0 H2H), Spartans (2-1 H2H)
OUT: Force (1-1 H2H), Rough Riders (0-2 H2H)

Scenario G: Predators win out (clinch a spot); Force and Crush lose out; Spartans beat Rough Riders in Week 9 and lose in Week 10; Rough Riders win Week 10

IN: Force (1-0 H2H), Spartans (2-1 H2H)
OUT: Crush (0-0 H2H), Rough Riders (0-2 H2H)

Scenario H: Predators win out (clinch a spot); Force and Crush lose out; Rough Riders beat Spartans in Week 9 and lose in Week 10; Spartans win Week 10

IN: Force (1-0 H2H), Rough Riders (1-1 H2H)
OUT: Crush (0-0 H2H), Spartans (1-2 H2H)


##Stopping here for the night. Will put more up later. Basically.......

Crush and Predators play in Week 10
Spartans and Rough Riders play in Week 9

Head-to-Head between the five teams (then adjust with result of Week 9 and 10)
Force: Wins: Spartans...Losses: Predators
Predators: Wins: Force...Losses: Crush
Crush: Wins: Predators...Losses: None
Rough Riders: Wins: None...Losses: Spartans
Spartans: Wins: Rough Riders....Losses: Force

Head to head is the first tiebreaker, so division record and points allowed don't matter UNLESS head to head is equal between two teams. The Predators are the only team that only has ONE division game remaining. The rest have two division games remaining.

If the Crush, Force, Spartans or Rough Riders are 4-4 overall when the season is over, they will have a 3-3 division record. The next tiebreaker is NEFL points allowed, followed by division points allowed.

If the Crush are 4-4 overall, then the Predators will have a 3-3 division record as well. The Predators could win Week 9 and lose Week 10 (sending the Crush to the playoffs) and end up with a 4-4 record, but 2-4 in the division. However, they own a tiebreaker over the Force, so if the Force end up 4-4, the Predators will advance in any scenario in which they are tied with the Force.

##NEFL WEEKLY RELEASE DOCUMENTS##

Coming Thursday (emailed to press and team emails)

##COACHES POLL##

Current Poll (Next poll conducted after games on July 13-14)
2nd Midseason Poll results (Games through June 23):
1. Pioneers (10) - 50
2. Rage - 38
3. Force - 30
4. Gladiators - 17
5. Crush - 15
Also receiving votes: None.
New to Top 5: #4 Gladiators
Dropped out: Predators

The Pioneers are unanimous #1 for the third straight poll (entire 2012 season)...all five teams appeared on every ballot. Only the five ranked teams received votes...Of the 10 ballots cast, 7 were identical in ranking the teams as they finished in the poll...The Rage received 8 of 10 possible second place votes...The poll results ensure that every week except week 10 this season will feature at least one match-up between Top 5 teams.

1st Midseason Poll results (Games through June 2):
1. Pioneers (10) - 50
2. Rage - 39
3. Force - 25
4. Predators - 22
5. Crush - 8
Also receiving votes: MN Spartans - 4, Gladiators - 2
New to Top 5: #5 Crush
Dropped out: Dragons (defunct)

Preseason Poll results (Games through May 5):
1. Pioneers (10) - 50
2. Force - 31.5
3. Predators - 26.5
4. Dragons - 19
5. Rage - 17.5
Receiving votes: Crush - 5, Thunderhawks - 0.5


##Week 9 Power Rankings##

(Win% - points allowed/game) + (average of opponents' win% - points allowed/game)
Applied as: 2012 NEFL games only + Last 10 overall games

WEEK 8 NEFL POWER RANKINGS (Week 9 coming Monday; THESE ARE OLD RANKINGS)

1. Pioneers (LW: 1) High: 1 Low: 1
2. Rage (LW: 2) High: 2 Low: 5
3. Force (LW: 3) High: 2 Low: 4
4. Gladiators (LW: 5) High: 3 Low: 7
5. Crush (LW: 6) High: 5 Low: 7
6. MN Spartans (LW: 7) High: 6 Low: 12
7. Predators (LW: 4) High: 2 Low: 7
8. Rough Riders (LW: 8 ) High: 8 Low: 12
9. Storm (LW: 9) High: 8 Low: 10
10. Giants (LW: 9) High: 7 Low: 10
11. Thunderhawks (LW: 11) High: 8 Low: 11
12. CW Spartans (LW: 12) High: 11 Low: 12


##Playoff Picture##

Division Leaders
1 - (W) #Pioneers 7-0 5-0 28 28
2 - (C) *Rage 6-0 4-0 159 111
3 - (E) *Gladiators 5-1 4-1 94 81
Wild Cards
4 - Force 4-2 3-1 84 58
5 - Crush 4-2 3-1 118 92
6 - MN Spartans 3-3 2-2 100 71
Playoff Cutoff Line
7 - Predators 3-3 2-3 113 106
8 - Rough Riders 3-3 2-2 149 90
9 - (e) Storm 2-5 2-3 196 141
10 - (e) CW Spartans 0-6 0-4 326 198
11 - (e) Giants 0-6 0-5 204 176
12 - (e) Thunderhawks 0-6 0-5 223 165


(1) - Clinched #1 Seed
# - Clinched Division
* - Clinched Playoff Spot
(e) - Eliminated

Tiebreakers in current standings
Force (84) over Crush (118) (points allowed)
MN Spartans (1-0) over Predators (0-0) and Rough Riders (0-1) (head-to-head)
CW Spartans (0-4) over Thunderhawks (0-5) and Giants (0-5) (division record)
Giants (204) over Thunderhawks (223) (points allowed)

Playoff Clinching/Seeding Scenarios for Week 9
Pioneers - Already clinched playoff spot; Already clinched West Division; Clinch first-round bye (Top 2 Seed) with Gladiators loss. (Bye for Week 9)
Rage - Already clinched playoff spot; Clinch Central Division with win or tie; Clinch first-round bye (Top 2 Seed) with win or tie and Gladiators loss. (at Crush for Week 9)
Gladiators - Already clinched playoff spot; Clinch East Division with win or tie and Force loss. (at Thunderhawks for Week 9)
Force - Clinch playoff spot with win. (at CW Spartans for Week 9)
Crush - Clinch playoff spot with win. (vs Rage for Week 9)

MN Spartans, Rough Riders and Predators cannot clinch a playoff berth this week. Here are the scenarios for them to make the playoffs (not comprehensive, just an idea of what it will take):
MN Spartans - Win out...beat the Rough Riders in Week 9 and have the Predators lose in Week 10 (regardless of outcome in Week 10)
Rough Riders - Win out...beat the MN Spartans in Week 9 and have the Predators lose in Week 10 (regardless of outcome in Week 10)
Predators - Win out and have both the Rough Riders and MN Spartans lose at least once in Weeks 9 and 10...Win only Week 10, have both Rough Riders and MN Spartans lose at least once (and one of them lose twice), and then win points tiebreaker.

Elimination Scenarios for Week 9
Rough Riders - eliminated with loss. (vs MN Spartans for Week 9).

Thunderhawks, Giants, CW Spartans, Storm - Eliminated from postseason contention