2013 SEASON PREVIEW THREAD

This is an addendum, but here's last season's Coaches Poll results:

Postseason Poll results (games through August 5)
1- Pioneers (9) 45
2- Predators 36
3- Rage 24
4- Force 16
5- Gladiators 11
9 teams voting

Also receiving votes:
MN Spartans 2, Crush 1


Regular Season Poll results (games through July 14)

1. Pioneers (10) - 50
2. Rage - 36
3. Gladiators - 27
T4. Force - 18
T4. Predators - 18
10 teams voting

Also receiving votes: MN Spartans - 1
New to Top 5: #4 Predators
Dropped out: #5 Crush


2nd Midseason Poll results (Games through June 23):
1. Pioneers (10) - 50
2. Rage - 38
3. Force - 30
4. Gladiators - 17
5. Crush - 15
10 teams voting

Also receiving votes: None.
New to Top 5: #4 Gladiators
Dropped out: Predators


1st Midseason Poll results (Games through June 2):
1. Pioneers (10) - 50
2. Rage - 39
3. Force - 25
4. Predators - 22
5. Crush - 8
10 teams voting

Also receiving votes: MN Spartans - 4, Gladiators - 2
New to Top 5: #5 Crush
Dropped out: Dragons (defunct)


Preseason Poll results (Games through May 5):
1. Pioneers (10) - 50
2. Force - 31.5
3. Predators - 26.5
4. Dragons - 19
5. Rage - 17.5
10 teams voting

Receiving votes: Crush - 5, Thunderhawks - 0.5



While we're here, here's the total value of points earned in the poll last season:

1. Pioneers - 245 (out of 245) total points, 49 (out of 49) first place votes
-Held top spot all year
-5 consecutive polls in Top 5

2. Rage - 154.5
-5 consecutive polls in Top 5

3. Force - 120.5
-5 consecutive polls in Top 5

4. Predators - 102.5
-2 consecutive polls in Top 5

5. Gladiators - 57
-3 consecutive polls in Top 5

6. Crush - 29

7. Dragons - 19 (Team Defunct)

8. MN Spartans - 7 (Team Defunct)

9. Thunderhawks - 0.5

The Rough Riders, Storm, CW Spartans and Bulls have never appeared in the NEFL Coaches' Poll.

Next: 2013 Projected League Standings/Initial Power Rankings

The 2013 NEFL Preseason Guide

Part 1 - Pythagorean Win Expectation, 2012
Part 2 - Projected League Standings, 2013
Part 3 - Team Previews
Part 4 - Schedule Highlights in 2013
Part 5 - Stat Soup

Late March - Short Media Kits Available (like the ones I did last year) - All teams will receive one
Before First Game - Team Media Guides (not every team)
May 5 - Weekly League Releases begin/First Coaches' Poll result


For everyone in the league: Here are some other things I do. I will charge a small fee for some of it (and I'm denoting those situations with $$$--means I'll ask for a very small amount of money or something in trade. I collect random sports stuff, so if you have an oddity in your fan shop I'll happily accept):

LIVE SCORING/SCORE SHARING: Whether it's a coach, your PA guy, a marketing intern, etc: Please have someone available at all games for score sharing. I plan to send updates every half hour again this season on all the games I have scores for. If you were signed up last year for them, you need to sign up again! My new phone got rid of the group I saved from last year. Disclaimer: I'm not responsible for any fees associated with your mobile service for transmission and receipt of text messages. Reply STOP to the number provided and I will cease the texts. To sign up, you'll have to get my phone number from your coach, manager, or owner (someone on your team will have my number). Or, message me here. Here's what a standard update will look like:

SP 3, CV 3 - 9:00 1Q
GB 3, FV 3 - 7:33 1Q

Here's what a final update will look like:

TMA 17, TMB 3 FINAL

Sometimes, I will provide extra info:

TMA 17 (3-1), TMB 3 (1-3) FINAL - TMA Clinches Playoffs

SP=Pioneers, LS=Rage, NB=Bulls, RC=Rough Riders, MEN=Thunderhawks, CV=Predators, EC=Crush, CW=Spartans, KIM=Storm, GB=Gladiators, FV=Force (non-league teams will be spelled out. "Minnesota Sting 3, NB 3 - 4:44 1Q" for example)


WEEKLY PRESS UPDATES: If you've never seen one before, they're a 4-5 page summary of the week ahead for the league. I only send them out during the regular season. $$$: You can request an addendum focusing specifically on your team's matchup. I will include all-time series records, coach records, quotes from both teams, and other data.

MONTHLY PODCASTS: If a team requests it, I will record monthly podcasts with them to talk about their team. These audio files are hosted by me and can be posted as a link on any website with any text. Teams need to request this service. $$$: You can get weekly podcasts if requested to post to your website. NOTE: Teams in my radio station's TSA (Total Survey Area) will receive free broadcast segments on my sports talk show, not exceeding 25 minutes. This currently includes the Predators, Crush, and Thunderhawks. Any team can request air time on my show, although not on a weekly basis.

NEFL WEEKLY/NEFL RADIO SHOW: I chose to discontinue this, but could be persuaded to bring it back. It's a ton of work to put together, though. I think the entire NEFL would need to support that again.

PRESS RELEASE/PUBLIC RELATIONS ADVICE/DRAFTING: In trade for having access to every team's information, I offer to draft (and distribute) press releases or offer public/media relations advice. Last year was a great test of how far I was willing to go with it. I have media lists for every region, so I can target just the media in your part of Wisconsin and/or Minnesota.

So what's up why aren't the Rochester Giants in the NEFL anymore? I am going to be trying out for the Giants but are they in a different league now or what?

Every week I'll try to post something fun and relevant to previewing the season. As always, without a database of player stats, I have to go by team stats, which can only tell you so much. To kick things off, I stole the Pythagorean Theorem from Football Outsiders to apply it to the 2013 NEFL teams. Every week I'll try to post something new (strength of schedule, games to watch, etc) so that this forum doesn't stay so boring.

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WEEK 1 - 1/24/13 - Pythagorean Expectation

You can google it to get the idea, but basically it's the expected record of a team based on the points scored by a team out of the total number of points scored by the team and their opponents. If it's even (a team scores 30, opponent scores 30) obviously it's a .500 record.

The EXPECTED wins is based on that formula. If it's HIGHER than the ACTUAL wins, that means a team has UNDERPERFORMED. If it's LOWER than ACTUAL wins, a team OVERPERFORMED. This set is for both last season AND all-time in LEAGUE PLAY ONLY. Maybe some day, one of these weeks, I'll do it for all-time... but not today. My lunch break is only so long.

St Paul Pioneers
2012 Actual Record: 10-0
2012 Expected Record: 10.0 - 0.0
All-Time NEFL Actual Record: 28-3-1
All-Time NEFL Expected Record: 30.9 - 1.1
2012: SAME AS EXPECTED RECORD
ALL-TIME: Underperformed by 2.4 wins
Analysis: A season like this one will tend to skew statistics one way or the other. For a team to be expected to win all but one game in three seasons is a testament to how dominant they've been in most matchups. They've performed about as well as you could expect any football team to perform.

Chippewa Valley Predators
2012 Actual Record: 7-4
2012 Expected Record: 8.3 - 2.7
All-Time NEFL Actual Record: 36-12
All-Time NEFL Expected Record: 42.3 - 5.7
2012: Underperformed by 1.3 wins
ALL-TIME: Underperformed by 6.3 wins
Analysis: Underperforming doesn't mean "didn't show up, didn't try, rolled over and quit." What it means is that the Predators were a little better than their record indicated, validated by the fact that they made the NEFL's championship game. Their five-year run in the NEFL has been very successful, with one title and two runner-up finishes.

Fox Valley Force
2012 Actual Record: 6-3
2012 Expected Record: 7.5 - 1.5
All-Time NEFL Actual Record: 28-10
All-Time NEFL Expected Record: 32.4 - 5.6
2012: Underperformed by 1.5 wins
ALL-TIME: Underperformed by 4.4 wins
Analysis: Like the Predators, the Force were better than their record indicated. Most of my random numbers had them in nearly a dead heat with the Predators for #2 in the league. The Force are always a threat to make the Elite Bowl, and 2013 will be no different.

Green Bay Gladiators
2012 Actual Record: 7-2
2012 Expected Record: 7.0 - 2.0
All-Time NEFL Actual Record: 21-22
All-Time NEFL Expected Record: 16.2-26.8
2012: SAME AS EXPECTED RECORD
ALL-TIME: Over-performed by 4.8 wins
Analysis: The Gladiators are who their record says they are--following the blueprint laid out in the preseason last year in these very same forums (win 1 against the Force, sweep their division, win non-league matchups... same for the Spartans and Storm), they had their best season ever. If that success carries over into 2013, it'll be another playoff appearance for Green Bay.

Minnesota Spartans (not in NEFL anymore)
Everything went as expected for the 5-4 Spartans, on the nose. Actual 5-4, Expected 5-4.

River City Rough Riders
2012 Actual Record: 4-4
2012 Expected Record: 2.0 - 6.0
All-Time NEFL Actual Record: 5-10
All-Time NEFL Expected Reocrd: 1.8 - 13.2
2012: Over-performed by 2 wins
ALL-TIME: Over-performed by 3.2 wins
Analysis: The Rough Riders won some very close matchups, which in a tiny sample size like a football season can really mess with the numbers. Even though they were only expected to win two games, they had a .500 record in a big step forward for the River City franchise. Normally you hear about regression with numbers like this, but they won't be facing the Pioneers and Spartans for half of their schedule this season.

Eau Claire Crush
2012 Actual Record: 4-4
2012 Expected Record: 3.9 - 4.1
All-Time NEFL Actual Record: 26-18
All-Time NEFL Expected Record: 32.0 - 12.0
2012: Over-performed by 0.1 wins
ALL-TIME: Underperformed by 6 wins
Analysis: The Crush have played in a lot of close games over the years. The strides forward this season resulted in an expected .500 record. They have had to play some difficult schedules the past two seasons, which knocks their actual win totals down, and they've had a good dose of the Predators and Rage for most of the last five years as well, two teams that are perennial contenders.

Lake Superior Rage
2012 Actual Record: 8-1
2012 Expected Record: 6.8 - 2.2
All-Time NEFL Actual Record: 37-10
All-Time NEFL Expected Record: 37.0 - 10.0
2012: Over-performed by 1.2 wins
ALL-TIME: SAME AS EXPECTED RECORD
Analysis: Amazingly, with a larger sample size, the Rage have the same actual and expected records. This year, they were undefeated in the regular season despite giving up buckets of points, something the Theorem takes into account. That's why it's reasonable to have expected them to have lost a game along the way, which is exactly what the numbers tell us. Their expected record was still VERY good, however, and you'd expect them to be right near the top again in 2013.

Kimberly Storm
2012 Actual Record: 2-6
2012 Expected Record: 2.5 - 5.5
All-Time NEFL Actual Record: 6-26
All-Time NEFL Expected Record: 5.3 - 26.7
2012: Underperformed by 0.5 wins
ALL-TIME: Over-performed by 0.7 wins
Analysis: The record ain't pretty, and it's right where you'd expect it to be based on points scored/allowed. That doesn't mean the Storm are a bad team (in fact, they were a lot better this year than in past years), but if their schedule lightens up a bit in 2013, they should break through and compete for a playoff spot.

Central Wisconsin Spartans
2012 Actual Record: 0-8
2012 Expected Record: 0.3 - 7.7
All-Time NEFL Actual Record: 8-33
All-Time NEFL Expected Record: 6.5 - 34.5
2012: Underperformed by 0.3 wins
ALL-TIME: Over-performed by 1.5 wins
Analysis: The first of our winless trio, the Spartans had a miserable season in which they gave up--by a wide margin--the most points of any NEFL team in the league's history. They're still a pesky team, especially early in the year, so they won't roll over for another 8 straight losses in 2013.

Rochester Giants (not in NEFL anymore)
Rochester's 0-8 was close to expected (0.3 - 7.7) and all-time they performed almost exactly to expectations (5-20 actual, 5.4-19.6 expected).

Menomonie Thunderhawks
2012 Actual Record: 0-8
2012 Expected Record: 0.4 - 7.6
All-Time NEFL Actual Record: 2-13
All-Time NEFL Expected Record: 1.5 - 13.5
2012: Underperformed by 0.4 wins
ALL-TIME: Over-performed by 0.5 wins
Analysis: The Thunderhawks have struggled a bit in league play, and just played one of the more difficult schedules that a team can play in the NEFL (Pioneers, Rage twice, Predators twice, Gladiators, Crush twice). This year should be a little bit easier to navigate for Menomonie.

North Bank Bulls
OK, they didn't play last year. But they're part of the league now!

NEXT WEEK: 2013 Expected Record!