Coming Soon:
-Preseason Guide with team-by-team schedule breakdown and statistics (some of which you've seen posted earlier here in the forums) - Available May 11th
-NEFL Weekly Radio Show (should be posted by May 10th)
-Weekly Guide and Week Preview features are going to be replaced by Game Notes feature (so it can be sent to the media) - Every Friday morning (first one May 11th)
-Coaches Poll #1 out of 5 (should be posted by May 11th)
Here's the first one out of the way. These rankings will be included in the game notes this year. The next set will combine week 1 results with the score listed below, and everything after that will be 2012 results only. (Two teams don't play in week 1, not fair to move them down so far for not playing).
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POWER RANKINGS (Posted weekly) - Preseason
HOW PRESEASON RANKINGS ARE CONDUCTED: I use the following formula for every set of power rankings:
Winning percentage - points allowed per game (TEAM RANK)
plus
AVERAGE of combined opponents' TEAM RANK
TM RK + (Ave) OPP TM RK
Example: Team A is 1-0 and gave up 3 points. Opponent is 0-1 and gave up 7 points.
100 - 3 = 97 (Team Rank)
0 - 7 = -7 (Opp Rank) --- Total opponent rank (one team) is -7 since -7/1 is still -7.
97 (TM RK) + -7 (OPP TM RK) = 90... the power ranking.
Easy!
During the season I will use only LEAGUE GAMES for power rankings (except week 1). For the preseason, here's what I'm using:
-Last 10 league games played is the first set
-2011 final rankings is the second set
-All-time NEFL rankings is the third set
I will list each set of rankings and the average. That average is the power ranking for the preseason. It is not indicative of the team this year so far--it is simply past results being averaged out. Roughly 3/4 of the ranking is stuff accomplished last year.
For projected wins/losses, I split any series where the teams were within 15 points of 50% and played twice (35-65%). If they played once and the percentages were 40-60%, I gave the edge to the home team. The percentages indicated are for the number of times, if the game was simulated 100 times based on past scores and opponent schedule/rankings, that the team beat their opponent (no home field factored in). This goes into both projected wins and losses--that percentage is essentially their chance of beating that opponent based on power rankings.
So here we go.
PRESEASON NEFL POWER RANKINGS 2012
Power Rank (Average)-Team ... 2011 Rank/Last 10 Gm Rank/All-NEFL Rank
1. (116.2) St Paul Pioneers 1/1/1 - Not much debate here. Two years, two championships, and the favorite for a third straight NEFL title and fourth straight league championship. They also have the easiest schedule (by power rankings average) of any team in the league.
POWER RANKING PROJECTION: 7-1 (6-2 by percentage)
Projected wins: Rough Riders (2) - 88.4%; Giants (2) - 76.3%; Dragons (1) - 55.6%; Thunderhawks (1) - 80.3%; Spartans (1) - 95.7%
Projected Losses: Dragons (1) - 55.6%
2. (98.2) Minnesota Dragons 2/2/3 - It's a small consolation for them, but they earned a split of the three games they played against the Pioneers last year. The one loss was in the playoffs. Their schedule projects to be middle-of-the-pack, which is actually a relief after last season's brutal slate involving the Rage and Pioneers for half of their games.
POWER RANKING PROJECTION: 6-2 (5-3 by percentage)
Projected wins: Rough Riders (2) - 85.9%; Giants (2) - 71.9%; Pioneers (1) - 44.4%; Storm (1) - 82.2%
Projected losses: Pioneers (1) - 44.4%; Force (1) - 47.9%
3. (93.6) Chippewa Valley Predators 3/3/2 - Remember, we're discounting non-league games here. The Predators and Force had tissue-soft schedules in 2011. That will be the case again in 2012, although the Predators get a slight bump due to a pair of games against the Rage.
POWER RANKING PROJECTION: 6-2 (5-3 by percentage)
Projected wins: Thunderhawks (2) - 78.8%; Crush (1) - 61.4%; Rage (1) - 56.0%; Giants (1) - 74.5%; Force (1) - 51.2%
Projected losses: Crush (1) - 61.4%; Rage (1) 56.0%
4. (83.0) Fox Valley Force 4/4/5 - The Force will have a ton of wins again in 2012, by projection, with nearly the easiest schedule in the league behind the Pioneers. This tends to be the case since the other teams in the East typically don't have great power ranking numbers, and the two games against the Spartans really bring the strength of schedule down.
POWER RANKING PROJECTION: 7-1 (6-2 by percentage)
Projected wins: Spartans (2) - 95.1%; Storm (2) - 83.4%; Gladiators (2) - 72.6%; Dragons (1) - 52.1%
Projected losses: Predators (1) - 48.8%
5. (80.4) Lake Superior Rage 5/5/4 - The Rage, with the infamous lack of a postseason last year, begin this year with a big ol' chip on their shoulder. Their schedule is not a breeze by any means, but they should handle enough business to remedy missing the playoffs last year.
POWER RANKING PROJECTION: 6-2 (5-3 by percentage)
Projected wins: Thunderhawks (2) - 74.5%; Predators (1) - 44.0%; Crush (1) - 55.5%; Rough Riders (1) - 84.5%; Giants (1) - 69.6
Projected losses: Predators (1) - 44.0%; Crush (1) - 55.5%
6. (65.0) Eau Claire Crush 6/6/6 - Eau Claire enters the season with higher expectations than last year. Their schedule is slightly difficult--double dips against the Rage and Predators will do that to the strength of schedule rating. However, they are projected to split with them and will likely be a playoff contender.
POWER RANKING PROJECTION: 6-2 (5-3 by percentage)
Projected wins: Thunderhawks (2) - 70.0%; Predators (1) - 38.6%; Rage (1) - 44.5%; Spartans (1) - 92.7%; Gladiators (1) - 63.6%
Projected losses: Predators (1) - 38.6%; Rage (1) - 44.5%
7. (36.6) Green Bay Gladiators 7/8/7 - In the first projection they miss the playoffs, but their schedule sets up pretty well to make a run. For example, sweeping their divisional foes not named the Force gets them a .500 record, and splitting with the Force and their non-division games gives them a 6-2 record... good enough to send them to the playoffs in this projection (which I have the 3 top central division teams splitting their games based on power rankings).
POWER RANKING PROJECTION: 4-4 (5-3 by percentage)
Projected wins: Spartans (2) - 87.9%; Storm (2) - 65.5%
Projected losses: Force (2) - 27.4%; Crush (1) - 36.4%; Thunderhawks (1) - 57.2%
8. (35.9) Rochester Giants 8/7/8 - Rochester made it to the playoffs last year and could be considered a dark horse...except that they play a difficult schedule (Pioneers x 2, Dragons x 2, Predators, Rage). If they make it to the playoffs this year, they will have definitely earned it.
POWER RANKING PROJECTION: 2-6 (3-5 by percentage)
Projected wins: Rough Riders (2) - 70.4%
Projected losses: Pioneers (2) - 23.7%; Dragons (2) - 28.1%; Rage (1) - 30.4%; Predators (1) - 25.5%
9. (25.6) Menomonie 10/9/9 - The Thunderhawks will face an incredibly tough road this year, with only one game against a team that finished 2011 with a losing record. Their schedule is the hardest in the league.
POWER RANKING PROJECTION: 1-7 (2-6 by percentage)
Projected wins: Gladiators (1) - 42.8%
Projected losses: Predators (2) - 21.2%; Crush (2) - 30.0%; Rage (2) - 25.5%; Pioneers (1) - 19.7%
10. (22.0) Kimberly 9/10/11 - The Storm have been improving every year, and like the Gladiators, could make things interesting if one of the Central teams falls out of contention and they win a lot of their division games.
POWER RANKING PROJECTION: 3-5 (3-5 by percentage)
Projected wins: Spartans (2) - 79.3%; Rough Riders (1) - 56.9%
Projected losses: Force (2) - 16.6%; Gladiators (2) - 34.5%; Dragons (1) - 17.8%
11. (16.5) Spartans 12/12/10 - With only 1 win in the last two seasons, the Spartans will hope to compete early (as they always do) to keep their season on track. Their first game is the Pioneers, but in years past, the Spartans have been feisty in May. Unfortunately, their season could be another long one, since they play a number of solid teams.
POWER RANKING PROJECTION: 0-8 (1-7 by percentage)
Projected wins: none.
Projected losses: Force (2) - 4.9%; Gladiators (2) - 12.1%; Storm (2) - 20.7%; Pioneers (1) - 4.3%; Crush (1) - 7.3%
12. (15.2) Rough Riders 11/11/12 - River City hasn't had much of a sample size, but they open with a pair of tough games in league (Dragons and Rage). Their schedule is pretty hard too, but like the Giants, if they make the playoffs, there won't be any doubt they belong. They have to get past some of the best teams in the league.
POWER RANKING PROJECTION: 0-8 (2-6 by percentage)
Projected wins: none.
Projected losses: Pioneers (2) - 11.6%; Dragons (2) - 14.1%; Giants (2) - 29.6%; Storm (1) - 43.1%; Rage (1) - 15.5%
BY DIVISION
WEST
Pioneers 7-1 5-1
Dragons 6-2 5-1
Giants 2-6 2-4
Rough Riders 0-8 0-6
CENTRAL
Predators 6-2 4-2
Rage 6-2 4-2
Crush 6-2 4-2
Thunderhawks 1-7 0-6
EAST
Force 7-1 6-0
Gladiators 4-4 4-2
Storm 3-5 2-4
Spartans 0-8 0-6
Playoff seeding: 1/Force, 2/Pioneers, 3/CV-LS-EC, 4/Dragons, 5/CV-LS-EC, 6/CV-LS-EC
Central division would come down to points allowed tiebreakers and/or coin flips in this scenario.
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I'll have a human breakdown of the schedule in the 2012 Preseason Guide. It will look slightly different, and won't have a 3-way tie (that's just how the numbers spit it out).
